Dawn of a new transportation age: an update
From 2017
"In business for over 100 years, the automotive industry is about to embark on a radical, convulsive transformation. The Washington Post (http://nnw.fm/0P4Do) recently pegged 2017 as the year electric vehicles (EVs) went from a promising fad to an industry-wide inevitability due to broader economic and cultural developments. With the forecast demise of the internal combustion engine, the demand for lithium, a crucial component of Li-ion batteries, is certain to surge as EVs proliferate. Lithium demand has already been projected to grow over 300% in the coming years, but that figure could prove to be a woeful underestimation given the massive transportation transformation that's now on the horizon." PRN.
Road emissions are back up close to pre-pandemic level at 5.86 GtCO2 (6.02 in 2019)
Oil production up to 104.4 bpd in 2024.
Here is the point
According to the data from Statista in 2017 production was at 97.9 bpd and a projection for 2022 at close to 100 bpd. Today the 2024 estimate is 104.45 bpd. If you are wondering why this is important in regards to cleaning up the environmental practices of our current civilization, the production/demand numbers correspond directly to the Co2 emission, you know the bad stuff clogging up the air of the planet we are living on.
The point is, if people are going to do anything about climate change or reduce oil consumption, cut pollution or any green policy that will help the environment and human health we need to start moving in the right direction. Below is a tool from Statista to provide some information on oil consumption, by far the biggest Co2 emitting activity.
Road Transportation emissions are noted in blue below, the measurement is in GtCO2 which is one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. Source IEA ...
This!
Soaring oil use for power generation and gas-to-oil switching are boosting demand. In this Report, we have raised our estimates for 2022 global demand growth by 380 kb/d, to 2.1 mb/d. Gains mask relative weakness in other sectors, and a slowdown in growth from 5.1 mb/d at the start of the year to less than 100 kb/d by 4Q22. World oil demand is now forecast at 99.7 mb/d in 2022 and 101.8 mb/d in 2023.
When the IEA talks about power generation, what the IEA means is electrical power generation! So let's spell this out clearly, if oil production and demand needs to go down in order to help with green house gases, as the number one emission is tail pipe (also known as road transportation), then we are risking increasing both emissions plus demand and use of oil by using it to generate electricity. This is adding not subtracting from the overall emissions. The cause for alarm is partly about the strategy failure but also the obvious and over looked conclusion that consumption is linked to economic activity. As long as we continue to prioritize this activity then we will continue to consume oil and more oil each and every year going forward. So emissions will steadily increase as well. Where is the solution to all the talk?
So far there has been only talk.
Oil demand is ~100 Million barrels a day 2022. In 2017 was ~97 Million per day with only year going forward on record when demand was lowered was 2020, when economic activity was at its lowest due to the pandemic shut down. 2024 oil production is projected at 104 mbd, with a corresponding increase in emissions.
AAA (American Automotive Association) latest consumer report finds 25% of people likely to buy an electric car. That means 75% are passing on EVs at this point. (July 2022)
No one is talking about light rail transportation which would decrease road transportation significantly if expanded in a way to reduce car and truck use i.e. public transportation.
Subsidizing light electric vehicles is also a possibility but the storage infrastructure would need to be developed so make this work to bring down emissions.
- Oct. 5, 2017
"A Barclays’ analysis concluded that oil demand could be slashed by 3.5 million barrels per day worldwide in 2025. If electric vehicle penetration reaches 33 percent, oil demand could shrink by a whopping 9 million barrels per day by 2040, Barclays concluded. Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance puts the number at 8 million barrels by 2040, more than the “current combined production of Iran and Iraq,” they note."
In business for over 100 years, the automotive industry is about to embark on a radical, convulsive transformation. The Washington Post (http://nnw.fm/0P4Do) recently pegged 2017 as the year electric vehicles (EVs) went from a promising fad to an industry-wide inevitability due to broader economic and cultural developments. Cont.
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